News 14: 10/25/09

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Meritage takes over Province in Maricopa - Meritage Homes Corp. has purchased a partially completed adult community in Maricopa. Scottsdale-based Meritage ! bought 433 finished lots and 885 planned lots, which are part of the Province community. Province was voted the Best Active Adult community in 2006 by the National Association of Home Builders' 50+ Housing Council. Since opening in 2003, approximately 900 homesites have been sold. "Meritage has been actively pursuing opportunities to acquire finished lots in good submarkets where we believe we can offer high-quality homes at very competitive prices, providing great values to our customers," said Steven J. Hilton, chairman and CEO, Meritage Homes.
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2009/10/05/daily7.html?s=industry&i=resi_real_estate

Real Estate Outlook: Sales Stats and Rates - There was a bumper crop of positives this past week for housing. Pending home sales jumped 6.4% in August marking the seventh straight month of increases in the National Association of Realtors' forwa! rd-looking index - the longest streak since 2001. Regionally, pending sales were up a stunning 16% in the Western states. New home sales were also up in the latest month - 0.7% nationwide, according to the Commerce Department. Even home prices have now turned around and are rising just about everywhere. The Case-Shiller 20-city price index took its biggest jump in four years last month - up by 1.6%. This index has been the darkest, gloomiest measure of the real estate market's direction in recent years, and the last major index to turn around this year. So, its latest increase is great news! And finally, mortgage rates dipped even lower last week to 4.9%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20091006_r! ealestat eoutlook.htm

! Additional articles that you may find of interest:

Cities, homebuilders differ over impact fees-
http://www.eastvalleytri! bune.com/story/145392

Real Estate Prices Could Climb Slowly-
http://www.realtor.org/rmodaily.nsf/pages/News2009100501

Builders Cut Back on Incentives-
http://www.realtor.org/rmodaily.nsf/pages/News2009100505
All Eyes on the Residential Real Estate Radar
Krugman Puzzled by Housing Asymmetry
Manhattan Office Vacancies Reach Five Year High, Cushman Says
U.S. Office Vacancies Reach Five-Year High of 16.5%, Reis ! Says
SPEED SELLS: Real estate flippers back in South Florida. MORE HERE
WAITING GAME: New Supreme Court Judge Sotomayor not selling New York City pad due to weak housing market. MORE HERE
BOUNCY: International real estate mutual funds are up 38% in 2009, or roughly double their market bottom. MORE HERE
LUXURY SALE: Then and Now: What does $1 million buy you in today's real estate market? MORE HERE
BARN DOOR? Schumer introduces bill to fight real estate fraud. MORE HERE
DARKNESS: Builder Magaz! ine: "Impending foreclosures cast shadow over housing recovery! ." MORE HERE
PART 2: New round of foreclosures looms in U.S. MORE HERE
SMALL ENOUGH TO FAIL: Without safety net, small banks feel full impact of real estate bust. MORE HERE
BAD BETS: Too many palatial homes, too few princely buyers — spec mansions lie unsold across Southern California MORE HERE
SWAMPED: 1 in 17 Tampa commercial properties seen i! n financial distress MORE HERE

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News :Cube Steak's Resurgence With Sinking Economy

Beef sales are up 3% but cube steak sales are up 10%. It's a fitting tribute to the economy according to the New York Times article Turning to Cube Steak, and Back to Childhood.

The cube steak is suddenly one of the hottest cuts of beef in the country, according to figures from the National Cattlemen's Beef Association. The amount of cube steak sold during the last quarter of 2008 was up by almost 10 percent over the same period a year earlier. The overall amount of beef sold went up only 3 percent.

It doesn't take a wizard to figure out that the economy's swan dive has much to do with the cube steak's resurgence. But even before kitchen budgets became tight, the cube steak had its fan base.

Through good times and bad, it has remained a wallflower among meat cuts. Old-fashioned and a little mysterious, it's a steak without pr! etension, or maybe a hamburger with humble aspirations.

"Oh, I just really love them," gushed Kathy Sullivan, 66. A Rhode Island resident, she has warm memories of cube steaks served alongside her father's homemade piccalilli relish. Later, she pan-fried them for her own children. But only good ones, she said, made from slices of sirloin or round steak she had the butcher cube by hand.

Susan Schultz, who lives in Fort Atkinson, Wis., fondly described the slightly pink centers of cube steak sautéed in nothing more than butter and seasoned with a little salt and pepper.

"It was kind of an upgraded hamburger if you couldn't afford steak," said Mrs. Schultz, who raised two children on pan-fried cube steaks. "I'm going to have to have one now."

The term "cube" can be a little murky. It doesn't refer to the shape of the meat, which is usually beef but is sometimes made from pork, elk or other animals. Rather, it refers to both the shape! of the dimples that checkerboard the surface of cube steak an! d the pr ocess that puts the dimples there.

Although pounding tough pieces of beef to make them more tender has a long history in the Southern and Western United States, it wasn't until patents on mechanized cubing machines were handed out in the 1930s and 1940s that the cube steak became an inexpensive butcher shop staple.

The machines are usually stainless-steel cases with innards fashioned from rollers covered in dozens of teeth sharp enough to pierce flesh cleanly. There are top-feeding home machines with cranks that do the job, too.

It's an interesting article and although I posted positive excepts, I assure you it's not a one sided love affair. One person quoted said "I fed it to the dogs".

Personally, I like cube steak fixed exactly like Susan Schultz in the article who sautées the steaks in butter, seasoned with a little salt and pepper. Coated in a bit of flour is fine too.

How Much For ! Cube Steak?

Kim Severson, the author of the article talks of paying $8 a pound for grass-fed cube steaks, and half that for conventionally raised beef. I am not sure where Kim shops but those prices are outrageous.

Traditionally cube steak is made from round and one can get round steak on sale for $2.00 to $2.79 a lb easily, and sometimes for much less. Moreover, it's a little known secret but you can buy round steak and have the butcher run it through the cuber twice for free.

You can also buy chuck roast at $1.69 or so on sale and have the butcher grind that into ground beef for free. The result is you get handpicked fresh ground chuck for $1.69 yet you might pay $2.59 or more for packaged ground chuck of questionable quality and age.

Cube Steak Recipes

For those looking beyond the simple recipes above please consider Beef Cube Steak Recipes featuring Beef Cube Stea! k Stroga noff, Ginger-Cinnamon Rice Cube Steak, Curried Beef Cube Steak with Sweet Potatoes, Zucchini Beef Cube Steak, Orange Braised Cube Steak, Cube Steak Parmesan, Beef Cube Steak with Mushrooms and Red Wine, and Whiskey Barbeque Beef Cube Steak.

If you insist on one more, please consider Country Fried Cube Steak with Mushroom Gravy.

Cube Steak, It's what's for dinner.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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News :Dismal Unemployment Situation In Chart Form

I have been following a number of unemployment charts showing just how bad the current recession is. Click on any chart to see a sharper image.

Job Loss Recovery

The last three recessions are unlike the eight preceding recessions. For numerous reasons described below we are heading for another job loss recovery.

Job Loss Recovery Detail

click on chart for sharper image

If the pattern holds, unemployment will rise until 2011 or beyond. Moreover, take a look at the first chart again. Odds of a double dip recession similar to 1980-1982 are high after whatever inventory rebuilding and bottom fishing in housing ends.

Consumer Confidence About Jobs

The Following is by permission from Contrary Investor

Contrary Investor writes:

"The jobs hard to get response is pushing up against 30 year highs seen in the last few months. Likewise the jobs easy to get component of the survey has hit a new low for the current cycle. We'll just have to see how hard the folks at the Bureau of Labor stats can goose the headline payroll numbers for July with further Birth/Death model estimates. We'll be surprised at nothing. But consumers are telling us labor market conditions have worsened, despite the government numbers. And without question this has driven their consumption behavior. "

Decade For Lost Jobs

Please consider the fo! llowing chart from Lost Decade For Jobs by Michael Mandel of BusinessWeek.

Record Number See Benefits End

The following chart is courtesy of David Rosenberg.

Take a good look at that chart. It's 50,000 now. The expectation is 500,000 by September and 1.5 million by the end of the year. What are the odds Obama creates 1.5 million jobs by the end of the year? Can he really create any? For how long?

While on the subject of claims please consider the following four charts courtesy of Chris Puplava at Financial Sense. I asked him to chart Data from Moodys.

Continuing Claims Since 2000

Continuing Claims Since 1970

Continuing Claims as % of Population Since 2000

Continuing Claims as % of Population Since 1980

Chris notes "The EUC and the extended benefits come out with a lag as Moody's had data for them only up to 07/11/09 while the continuing claims data is up to 07/18/09. The charts above are through ! 07/11/09."

I commented on the above series of charts in Weekly Unemployment Claims Portend Disaster.

Here is a snip.

Unparalleled Continuing Claims

On a percentage of population basis this recession is unparalleled.

Making matters worse, the US consumer was nowhere near as leveraged to real estate in 1980 or 1982 as now. Also note that boomers are heading into retirement now, undercapitalized and looking for jobs, in effect competing against their kids and grandkids for jobs.

Look at the average age of baggers in grocery stores or greeters at Walmart. These people are not working because they want to; they are working because they have to. Demand for jobs is at an all time high while the number of available jobs and the pay scales of those jobs have b! oth collapsed. The employment situation is not only an unmitig! ated dis aster, things are about to get worse with pending state cutbacks.

Because of expiring claims, continuing claims data will soon start looking better. The reality however, is things will get worse for another year as unemployment soars into double digits. My forecast in January was 10.8% in 2010 while the Fed's was 8.5%. I see no reason to change mine, but the Fed upped theirs.

The implications for housing and especially commercial real estate are ominous.

Part Time Employment

The following graph from Calculated Risk shows the unemployment rate and the percent of the civilian labor force that is working part time for economic reasons.

New figures come out on Friday but here is the June count of Part-Time Employment.

Table A-5 Part Time Status

click on chart for sharper image
The chart shows there are 9 million people are working part time but want a full time job. A year ago the number was 5.5 million.

Exhausted Benefits

The following graph on the number of workers who have exhausted their regular benefits is also courtesy of Calculated Risk:

Calculated Risk writes:

"The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce. According to the BLS, there are almost 4.4 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is 2.8% of the civilian workforce.

Right now very few workers have exhausted their unemployment benefits, but there is tidal wave coming. The Law Project estimates 0.5 million workers will have exhausted their extended benefits by the end of September, and close to 1.5 million by the end of 2009. Unless the unemployment rate starts to decline, the numbers will continue to grow rapidly in 2010."

Incredible Shrinking Boomer Economy

Before many companies start hiring full-time workers, they wil! l first put part-timers back to work full time. This will add ! signific ant delays to the hiring process in this "recovery".

Indeed, by the time "stimulus" wears out (and it will), the economy will be slipping back into a double-dip recession.

Note that there is no driver for jobs other than inventory replenishment and various stimulus measures. The latter does nothing but push demand forward. Meanwhile Wages and Salaries Fell 4.7%, Most On Record.

Finally, I want to leave you with a thought from the Incredible Shrinking Boomer Economy.

In his Town Hall Meetings Bernanke said:

"It! takes GDP growth of about 2.5 percent to keep the jobless rate constant. But the Fed expects growth of only about 1 percent in the last six months of the year. So that's not enough to bring down the unemployment rate."

Inquiring minds might be asking: Why does it take 2.5% growth to keep the jobless rate constant? The answer is the first 2.5%+- of GDP is based on hedonics and imputations. In plain English, the first 2.5%+- of GDP (if not much more) is fictional. When the economy is growing at 2% it feels like a recession because it probably is, even though no one will admit it.

Now consider the implications of a 2.4% GDP forecast for three decades.

If Bernanke is correct that it takes 2.5% GDP growth just to keep the unemployment rate constant, and McKinsey is also correct in its 2.4% forecast, we will be stuck with 10% unemployment for decades.

No Driver For Jobs

In the ! 1980's and 1990's an internet boom created massive numbers of ! jobs. Be tween 2000 and 2007 a housing boom created massive numbers of jobs. I keep asking what the next driver for jobs will be. Inventory replenishment will not do it. Nor will one-time stimulus efforts like road building.

Nothing on the energy front seems capable at this time of producing such a boom. Commercial real estate is massively overbuilt as is the retail sector. So don't look for Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW), Target (TGT), or Walmart (WMT) to lead the way. Forget about banking too as Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) have their hands full and then some.

And although one can never tell in advance when technology breakthroughs will happen, as we have seen, internment booms are not that common. In 2001 everyone was waiting for the next "killer app". Everyone is is still waiting so don't look at Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), or the technology sector either.

So while everyone is tooting horns and cheering the end of! the end of the recession before it has even ended, those graphs and comments from Bernanke himself will put the pending job loss Recovery into better perspective.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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News :Great Whites Shark attack of South Africa in Video

South Africa's Great Whites Shark attack Video

In about 1985, one of the boats at Kalk Bay, the Marion dawn, was involved in the seal cull at the island. One afternoon they had caught a great white, and had strung the thing up from the crane at KB harbour. 11 seals fell out of it's mouth. 11!!! It must have been in the region of 22 ft long.

Do you recall the legendary shark called the Summarine ( the coloured folk caled him/her Spotty ? The old guard lifeguards in the old days practised their retrievals by hooking sharks just behind the reef opposite the clubhouse in Strand.

I happen to be a long distance surfski paddler in the same area and have seen plenty of sharks out at sea, but I've had 2 occasions where they breached right up close to us - truly an awesome experience. In the old days our fishing community was mainly coloured and muslim and they referred to GWS as ' jampies' ( as in jumpers ).

These ads were made on Seal Island, in False Bay, not Dyer Island, as can be seen from the background montains. I distinctly remember Oom Danie Schoeman and Taki Tragakis hauling HUGE sharks onto the jetty in Strand. In those days we called GW's Bluepointers. I find it amazing that we were so ignorant about sharks in those days. Enjoy Video below......

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News 14

Sunday, October 25, 2009

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News :Pending home sales jumped 6.4% in August

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